What is this?

Which teams are most likely to win their conference in 2018? Make the playoff? Win the national championship?

This page displays results from simulating the remaining games in the 2018 college football season after each week of the regular season. The model is built on historical college football play by play and game data in order to simulate upcoming games for all teams. All data is from collegefootballdata.com.

1 Predicting the 2018 Season

The following table shows each team’s rating, predicted record (for the regular season), and probabilities of making a bowl, winning a conference championship, making the playoff and/or winning the national championship.

These results are based on simulating the 2018 season 1000 times and finding the percentage of simulations in which a team achieved each outcome. These simulations are run after every week - use the filter on ‘Week’ in the table below to see the predictions after each week of the season.

2 Playoff Probabilities

How has each team’s chances of making the playoff changed throughout the year? The following visualizations displays the probability of making the playoff for teams that have at any point achieved a probability of at least 1% of making the playoff.

3 National Championship Probabilities

How has each team’s chances of winning the national championship changed throughout the year? The following visualizations displays the probability of winning the national championship by week for teams that have at any point achieved a probability of at least 1% of winning the NC.

4 Conference Championship Probabilities

4.1 SEC

4.2 Big Ten

4.3 Big 12

4.4 Pac-12

4.5 ACC

4.6 Mountain West

4.7 Mid-American

4.8 American Athletic

4.9 Sun Belt

4.10 Conference USA